Skeptical Advice

This article is based in part on concepts expressed by Michael Shermer

I want to begin by thanking the entire commission for all their hard work and commitment to our community. Believe me when I say it is a difficult arduous task not without the slings and arrows of resident discontent and inescapable pluralism. I wish our community had many more dedicated, civic-minded residents willing to do the hard work that comes with being a town commissioner. I wish many more residents would become actively involved in the day-to-day politics of our community. At times, I feel like our island newspapers could carry a headline stating "the town commission has revolted and beheaded the town manager", and not a single resident would submit comments or a letter to the editor. Compared to other communities where I have lived, this community seems to be content, if that is the right word.


I want to talk about what is called "the argument from ignorance". This is most often manifested in thinking that says "it must be true because it has not been proven false". Or "because I cannot imagine a viable alternative, there cannot be one". I believe that our town government frequently finds itself making these sorts of assertions when they are confronted by large or complex issues, where the commission has to choose between several courses of action. Further, I believe that the argument from ignorance prevails through no fault of the commissioners, but rather because the commission lacks the necessary tools and adequate information to make truly informed decisions.


How do we avoid the argument from ignorance? I want to look at the current beach bond conundrum and look at some alternative scenarios that might have occurred, if more information and more input from professionals had been part of the process. Reading comments in the newspapers, and talking to residents, it is apparent that voters are unsure, confused and unclear as to the actual condition of the island's beaches, the future course of beach management and the financial implications of our current and future beach policies. At this point, I would refrain from forecasting the outcome of the beach bond initiative. Looking at the upcoming $16 million bond referendum, along with future beach management bond initiatives, I see confusion and a lack of understanding on the part of the electorate. Perhaps this is simply a reflection of the commissions actions over the past few months. I personally am unable to discern any clear direction going forward that offers any relief from escalating costs.

To anyone who has followed the tortuous course of actions that has led to the current bond referendum, one cannot help but see a conscious effort on the part of the town and the commission to limit discussion about our beach program. For instance, when the town manager held a special workshop on beach cost containment alternatives, no one advocating alternatives was invited to attend. Instead, the discussion was restricted to two "experts" who categorically stated that there are no alternatives to ever more expensive dredging. Since then a respected contractor has presented an example of an alternative to dredging that has been working well for many years. I do not believe many commissioners have understood the implications of a viable alternative, since the town manager blasted the working beach sand alternative for being site specific, and certainly not appropriate for Longboat. Personally, I worry about policies based in inference rather than experimentation and analysis.

If there are alternatives that contain costs, I fear our commissioners will never be open to examining them since the town manager will once again bring in his experts to convince the commissioners that the world really is flat. Not playing with a full deck of facts seldom leads to best conclusions.

As a commissioner, I tried to advance the need for special advisers to the commission. These experts would answer only to the commission and not be hired by or part of the town bureaucracy. I believe the commission makes decisions based on incomplete or politically colored information. These experts would be retained as needed and would advise the commission without being part of any other town business. Each adviser would be an expert in a particular area of interest to the commission. As the town is confronted by increasingly more complex issues we need to avoid "the argument form ignorance".