Friday, March 23, 2012

Getting burned at both ends


According to the ILO, “Americans work 137 more hours per year than Japanese workers, 260 more hours per year than British workers, and 499 more hours per year than French workers.”


Using data by the U.S. BLS, the average productivity per American worker has increased 400% since 1950. One way to look at that is that it should only take one-quarter the work hours, or 11 hours per week, to afford the same standard of living as a worker in 1950 (or our standard of living should be 4 times higher). Is that the case? Obviously not. Someone is profiting, it’s just not the average American worker.


If we look at wages in America compared to productivity since the 1970's, we see that while productivity has increased steadily, wages have remained relatively flat.


This has been a bountiful economic boon for American business. The cost of labor, as a percent of production, has been steadily decreasing for the past 40 years. This resulted in ever increasing profits. On the other side of this economic equation, American workers have been caught in ever increasing inflation with no off-setting increase in earnings.


For a time, American business was able to expand exports to compensate for greatly increased production in a society with wage controlled limited buying power.


In the early 70's American business figured out how to increase American consumption, to keep up with increased production, while decreasing labor costs and increasing profits even more.


The answer was to loan business profits back to the workers. Now profits could be made from profits while increasing the debt of the worker and assuring his/her need to work even harder, without the need for more capital investment. This was brilliant.

American business took in more and more cash while the buying power from wages of their workers remained static. This presented a problem for the business community, until someone figured out that the way to increase consumption was to loan the workers the money to buy more stuff. There was simply no other way to invest ever increasing profits. This was a brilliant scheme and it has worked extremely well for the past 40 years. During that time the standard of living in America rose faster and higher than at any other time in history.

BINGO! Now American business had a winning economic model. They were able to make money at both ends from their workers. On one hand American workers were willing to work harder, longer and smarter. Computers play a major role, increasing productivity while lowering labor costs. The American work week steadily increased from the low point at the end of the American labor movement in the late 60's where 1 in five households had 2 working parents to the 2000's where 70% of American families have 2 working parents. This is a staggering increase in the American labor force.

American workers were eager to elevate their standard of living and were willing to worker longer hours and harder to get there. So began the beginning of the end for the post  60's American business model.


Now the American worker is tired and worn out. He/she cannot work harder than they already do. The business community is slowly realizing that the rate of increased productivity in America has been slowing over the past decade, while foreign labor costs make foreign production more profitable.

There is nowhere for the current American economic system to go in the new world economy. Business has run out of ways to invest its profits in America. The American worker has reached, and passed, any reasonable amount of loan debt, so that part of the profit equation is disappearing. Though the profits (15-30% from credit cards / student loans) are pretty good, the risks to American business, loaning its profits back to the workers who created the profits, has become too risky. Even though the American worker/taxpayer has been willing to socialize what had previously been private debt (70's Savings and Loan collapse + Wall Street collapse), the US tax base has deteriorated to a level where 47 percent of Americans do not pay federal incomes taxes.

The American way is running on fumes. There is nothing remaining to exploit. We have passed the point where political ideologies will make a difference. American business has been very successful since the second World War. Now the piper must be paid and the party may already be over.

I hope that our economy turns around quickly. I hope everyone has a good job very soon. I hope that our education system finds a way to get our children to once again hit the books, and get serious about getting an education instead of merely getting a degree. I hope we, as a nation, find a way to stop paying 2 to 3 times as much as other industrialized nations, for a mediocre, profit-driven medical system. I hope we as a people find a national dialog instead of everybody talking and nobody listening.

We are our own worst enemy.

Thursday, March 15, 2012

Making Sense of Commission Myths

Myth 1 - that the commission can substantially change the major trends of the global real estate market.  The commission is trying to localize the housing market issue and scare the residents into believing that only developers can save our community from certain ruin. Nothing could be further from the truth. Up until the global economic recession of 2008, Longboat Key was one of the hottest real estate investment communities in America. Those little and old condominiums and homes, where most of us live, were selling for very high prices. The truth of the matter is that they will soon again be in great demand because of our unique low density community. That is unless we allow developers to plunge us into decades of redevelopment, where few would want to purchase property. That is where I disagree with a commission that wants to replace what has worked for decades with bigger and thus necessarily taller condominiums. I say let's wait a few years to change the comprehensive plan. If after the economy recovers we find that our homes are not selling at good prices, then we can seek solutions based on a stable real estate market and not on global conditions that affect everyone. The commissioners are not real estate marketing experts or land use experts.

Myth 2 - that if a community center is built in the middle of a 10-mile island, where a large percentage of the residents live only half the year or less, the center will be sustainable and active all year long by attracting off-island customers. 


The commission says if we spend millions of dollars to build a large community center, then everyone will flock to Bayfront Park to enjoy the view of the bay and attend meetings and classes. Ask yourself if you are one of those people. The commission further contends that in the 6 to 8 months of the year when residents are not living here, the facility will be filled by off-island organizations and clubs renting the meeting rooms and using the gym. I doubt that there will be all that much enthusiasm to drive 15 to 20 miles, through traffic, from downtown Sarasota or Bradenton to use our community center building. There are so many meeting centers in town. I think the taxpayers will be stuck paying a half million dollars a year to run and maintain the community center. I favor using the existing underutilized commercial building on Bay Isles at a fraction of the cost of constructing and maintaining a speculative venture at Bayfront Park.

When all is said and done, the commissioner's Bayfront Park project could cost $11+ million taxpayer dollars including the $4+ million the county spent for the commercial land south of Bayfront Park.

Myth 3 - if you try hard enough to legislate land use changes, that compromise the residents in favor of commercial interests, then the developers will fix everything. Developers, unless they are unfortunate, do not do anything that is not in their economic interests. Two developers took control of Whitney Plaza 2 years ago. To date they have been unsuccessful in attracting a single business to the shopping center. They have been unfortunate. I believe it will be more difficult for them now that Publix is building an attractive new commercial center at mid-island.


The current commission wants to sweeten the pot by using a quaint residential neighborhood as tourist bait, in hopes that a developer will invest millions in a large commercial tourist center at the north end. They have no plan 'B'. Yet they also have no idea if any developer will ever want to invest in what has been a losing proposition for the past 20 years. If the commission, or the commission's committee, does know about a developer, then our system of government is broken and we need to look at what happened in Venice. What if no developer comes forward? How many more years must we wait to rid our community of a blight that adversely affects the entire island? The proposed north end commercial overlay may actually prolong the north end blight resulting in continued depressed home values as far south as the Cedars tennis club.

Here's an idea and possible solution for the north end along GMD and Broadway.  The commercial property could be acquired for under $5 million in today's market. If the taxpayers are willing to spend upwards of $11 million on Bayfront Park, why not spend $5 million to create a park at the north end that would be easily accessible to more people while quickly resolving the blight conditions at the northern gateway to Longboat Key. After all a community is about its taxpaying residents above all else.

There are several differences between the two park projects including the costs. A park at the north end would be in walking distance of over 400 residences in the village and surrounding condominiums. People cannot easily get to Bayfront Park on foot. Having a park located at the north end, with low impact boating activities, would become an economic engine for rentals and home sales in the surrounding neighborhood. I do not believe there are many north end residents who want increased commercial tourism in their community. While Bayfront Park is just another roadside attraction, a park at the north end would be appreciated by anyone coming onto or leaving the north end of the island.

It does seem odd that the commission sanctioned revitalization committee, with the assistance of New College, a few north end residents and business people and several behind-the-gates residents could only come up with a single solution for the north end and that was a hotel



Myth 4 -  that the commission, and its various commercial proposals, has the support of the community. There are 16 people who comprise the Planning and Zoning Board and the Commission. Only 3 of these people have been elected. There have been no referendums, no community-wide scientific surveys and little effort by the the two bodies to include the community. Since Mr. Brenner has been on the commission, there has been much greater emphasis on using appointed committees that operate outside the Florida sunshine laws, but are still granted the same standing as if they were elected groups holding public meetings. This commission has effectively obfuscated the process of government. Mr. Spoll, a leader of one of the commission's secretive committees made recent comments that might lead one to think that Mr. Spoll is delegating the responsibility to each resident of ferreting out the inner-workings of our town's stealth apparatus, rather than the government being transparent and inclusive. This is never going to be an inclusive commission it seems.


Myth 5 - that the commission has made real progress towards improving our community in any substantive manner. I can not think of a single major effort by the commission that has come to fruition. Mr. Brenner is taking much credit for the Publix project, without any way of verifying his assertions, since according to Mr Brenner everything was done behind the scenes. The pension mess remains stuck in process. The marketplace continues to drive business on the island as it should, despite the so far feckless words of our commission that they will plan our way out of our problems. Luxury homes continue to be built in fair numbers up and down the island without input from the commission.


If you look at facts instead of myths, perhaps you will conclude that the current commissioner election offers Longboat Key residents an opportunity to tell the commission that we need to change our approach to town government. So far the commission's focus on pro-business, pro-developer legislation has not translated into any meaningful improvements for Longboat Key. There is no guarantee that the tourism business will ever return to a community that long ago transformed itself into an exclusive community that probably doesn't even want tourists. Isn't that why people live behind gates and on private roads?

Saturday, March 10, 2012

Sex, promises and 150 room hotels


Mr. Spoll has now publicly assured the residents at the north end of Longboat Key that he will not force them to accept anything taller than a 3 story hotel over 2 stories of parking. Mr. Spoll may have forgotten that nice hotels usually have a spacious lobby and a restaurant on the first level. That makes 6 stories and counting the additional 14 feet allowed by town codes for elevator and stair shafts and equipment rooms on the roof.

Since the town commission is working on the second legal reading of their sweeping changes to the town's Comprehensive Plan, residents may no longer expect any sort of protection in the legal area of our codes. This commission is quickly making the process of granting variances to developers a political process. We have already reached the level of politics where our unelected mayor represents clients, as their architect, before the Planning and Zoning Board that he appoints. Who would you hire if you too wanted your building plans to have smooth sailing through the town?

No matter that two hotel developers have stated that a minimum of 150 rooms is essential to build a financially viable hotel at the north end of the island. Mr. Spoll knows better it seems. Three year ago, the same Mr. Spoll voted to spend $25K taxpayer dollars to hire a traffic engineer who would agree with Mr. Spoll that traffic roundabouts are bad and unsafe. Now that same Mr. Spoll appears to have done a 180 degree reversal and now embraces traffic roundabouts. I wish he had saved us all the $25K in the first place.

I typed into Google Images - "150 room hotel" and came up with dozens and dozens of pictures of 150 room hotels. You be the judge whether Mr. Spool has any idea what a 150 room hotel looks like. All the pictures show 6 to 9 story hotels. Please note that the two tallest condominiums at the Key Club are 10 stories tall.

When you vote, remember that Mr. Brenner publicly supports tourism development at the north end of Longboat Key. Then think about who would want to buy your home if your island becomes a commercial tourism destination at both the north and south ends.




L'Ambiance condominium - 10 stories tall