Tuesday, December 28, 2010

We the Taxpayers

What would happen if all the homeowners on Longboat Key formed a political pressure group? Let's say we call it Longboat Key Home Owners or LKHO, which might be pronounced much like the Spanish word for crazy "loco", and perhaps it is an unusual notion. However, how would such an organization alter the political landscape on Longboat Key?

LKHO would be the largest special interest group on the island by far. PIC has only a few members now, many of whom are involved with real estate, which is often reflected in PIC support of development on the island that would have been anathema to PIC members a decade ago.

LKHO would represent all property owners and give a voice to non-resident taxpayers that has never been available to them before.

LKHO could clearly define the interests of island property owners with a strong single voice. LKHO members could be effectively polled to ascertain views on tourist development, beach management, vision plan content, revisions to the Comprehensive Plan, development of the town's public lands such as Island Park and Quick Point and a host of other community functions.

LKHO could have an elected representative attending commission meetings and conveying LKHO's positions of various vital commission decisions. This representative would carry a big stick being the representative of a large majority of the community's taxpayers.

Currently the town is run by a town manager and a commission that is mainly composed of appointed or unopposed residents. Perhaps in a more vital political environment the commission might be more responsive to home owners. What I see presently is a great deal of commission discussion about how to fiddle with our long-standing land use codes to provide a way for the developers to expand their operations on Longboat without ending up on the losing side of court decisions. My idea of forming a homeowners political pressure group would force the current developer oriented commission to include all property owners in their discussions.

LKHO, if it came into being, would be a strong voice for those non-resident taxpayers who are presently disenfranchised. I can not see any other means of exerting force on the town government to become strong advocates of non-resident taxpayers. I see absolutely no discussion from the commissioners about the plight of homeowners and non-resident taxpayers. Instead of tightening the town's fiscal belt, the commissioners raised taxes at a time of almost universal economic distress and a devastating decline in home values.

Now the town wants to embark on a $50+ million beach renourishment program that many feel is unneeded and unwarranted. The $50+ will go directly to the bottom line on your taxes. Right behind that is the pension plan conundrum that has been kicked down the road for years by a commission that has never been able to get a clear understanding of what is at stake. What is at stake is a $30+ million ad velorum bond that will increase real estate taxes even more. When a town government encumbers its constituents with excessive taxes, the cost of living in that community becomes more expensive and less attractive to perspective home buyers.

LKHO may seem a bit crazy to some. To others it will be crazy like a fox. I believe it is time for our property owners to unit and become an effective part of the political process. If  you are tired of not having a voice in Longboat government, property tax increases and seemingly endless expensive bond referendums, you might think about becoming a little bit LKHO yourself.

If you feel that having a homeowner oriented political pressure group similar to LKHO is a good idea, add your comments to this article, talk to your neighbors. If enough homeowners express an interest in forming an organization them perhaps it will happen. I believe such a group would be good for our community.

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Dancing in the Dark

I have looked at Longboat Key's town manager form of government and the strong mayor form of government that exists on Anna Maria Island. Certainly neither form of government is perfect and each has its challenges. However, I do see some important differences and perhaps some advantages to the strong mayor form of government.

One of the three planks in my campaign for commissioner centered on the inability of our commissioners to always make truly informed decisions. When it comes to the large and complex, and often the most expensive issues, the commission too often operates as a rubber stamp for the programs and policies of the town manager. I am not slighting our town manager as I have always found him to be a consummate professional with considerable political aplomb. I see the problem as a flaw in an unpaid commission where no one runs for office, and the inability of the commission to learn about and grasp the subtleties often inherent in large programs such as beach management or reclaimed waster. In the case of reclaimed water, the taxpayers spent over $3 million for little more than two bottles of water. The reclaimed water project was complex and relied on the advice of a single contractor with much to be gained from the project. Perhaps if the town had sought the advice of other experts in the field, the taxpayers would not have wasted $3+ million.

The Longboat Key beach management issue once again demonstrates that the commissioners are called upon to make decisions about technical matters they clearly did not understand. The town manager brought in two "experts" to educate the commission about alternative technologies for maintaining beaches. At the end of the day the commissioners were forced to accept the town manager's position, that there are no alternatives to sand dredging, since the commissioners had nowhere near enough knowledge about the subject to form their own informed opinions. I feel this occurs too often. Yet what can be done about the situation when we are lucky not to have to appoint commissioners when a commission seat goes unwanted.

In the process of convincing the commission that there are no possible alternatives to dredging, the town managed managed to sidestep the question of why he wants to advance the scheduled beach project. Again I do not believe all the commissioners were even aware that advancing the beach project may be more costly in the long-run than remaining on schedule. It appears the town manager was able to substitute alternatives as the criteria for advancing the beach project, instead of discussing financial costs, needs or long-range fiscal planning.

The Anna Maria Island communities have strong mayor governments with no town manager. In those communities each member of the commission is personally responsible for some aspect of the town's operations, whether it be finance or water/sewer or beach maintenance or some other department. The Anna Maria form of government requires commissioners to have personal knowledge and experience as a required part of their job description. On Longboat the commissioners do not have to do or know anything. Yet we ask them to make decisions that often have large consequences and high price-tags.

Last week the commissioners decided to advance the next $54 million beach dredging one year. I do not believe that all the commissioners were cognizant of the financial ramifications of their decisions, yet they were asked to decide anyway. I also saw the commissioners agree that there are no alternatives to dredging after listening to the town manager's experts. Yet I felt that few of the commissioners had any real background or knowledge about alternative beach maintenance technologies, even the ones that have existed on Longboat for over a decade, as was pointed out by former mayor Brown in his column this week.

I believe there might have been a different discussion on Anna Maria where at least one of the commissioners would have been intimately involved with beach maintenance as a part of his day-to-day duties in a strong mayor form of government.

I am not the only columnist to have written about the apparent weaknesses in our town manager form of government, in these times of fiscal stress and evermore technically complex problems to be solved.

Since there is little chance that we will transform our government, I am proposing, once again, that the commission retain its own consultants and expert advisers, as needed, as a counterpoint to the town manager's agenda and "Golden Rolodex" of consultants.

We cannot afford to make mistakes.

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Too Far Horizons


This past week three individuals either emailed or called me after reading my column in the LBK News advocating immediate rejuvenation of our user-friendly community quotient. In the column I said that the village was a wonderful place to live with lots of social activities and welcoming neighbors.

Dennis from Ohio is 71 and stays at the Far Horizons a month every winter. He is now ready to retire and is looking for a place to live. After reading my column Dennis called me to ask about houses for sale in the village at the north end of Longboat. During our conversation he expressed agreement with my statements that when he visits Longboat he feels isolated and lonely as there are no apparent ways to meet people outside the small group of fellow tourists staying at the resort. Dennis wishes there were things to do on Longboat that would enable him to enjoy the company of others. At the end of our conversation Dennis said that he is now actively looking for a home in the village expressly because of the sense of community that exists within the village.

Bill and Anne emailed from Rye New York. They also read my blog which turned up on a Google search about retirement communities in Florida. Bill and Anne subsequently called after I returned their email. Bill and Anne found exactly what they were looking for in my description of the rich social interaction that thrives in the village. They inquired about specific social activities in the community and about being dog-friendly. I told them about dog-thirty which occurs at 5:30 each afternoon where all the dogs bring their humans to play and socialize. Since then I have received two more phones calls asking about specific houses in the village that are for sale. I have referred them to a real estate agent familiar with the village.

All three of these people are ready to move here now and they want to live where there are things to do with others. This is far different than the model being advanced in the new vision plan where tourism is touted as the essential element in the financial wellbeing of Longboat Key. Where in fact the very model being advanced in the new vision plan would drive away the three people I have been talking about. They do not want to live in a motel. They want to find a welcoming community where people do things together. Tourist do not do things with residents.

Dennis and Bill and Anne are ready to buy homes today and become residents of Longboat Key today. The plan being put forth in the vision plan targets affluent tourists in their 40s and 50s as future home buyers. Unless they can find high paying jobs in the area, it will be decades before they get here. Dennis, Anne and Bill are here today with their checkbooks in hand.

I agree that we need to be looking ahead and cultivating future residents in all our marketing. But the vision plan is a Too Far Horizon for today and our community’s immediate and short-range plans and needs. When real estate agents market our island to perspective home buyers today, they should be able to brag about all the wonderful things to do on Longboat, and all the friendly neighbors they will get to know.

The vision plan looks too far into the future to be of any real use in today’s economics and community aspirations. Ask yourself how many years you think it will be before some brave developer builds a motel or hotel on Longboat Key. Ask yourself if you would relocate into a community with markedly more tourism and tourism related businesses. Ask yourself if you would like to see significantly more people on the beach, on the road and in our restaurants. Ask yourself if you would prefer to see people moving to Longboat in the very near future, or wait until the tourist based vision plan finds investors willing to build new motels or open new stores to the extent that Longboat is a tourist attraction, and then wait another twenty years for the tourist's kids to leave home.

I believe the proposed vision plan relies too heavily on horizons too far distant into an unpredictable financial future. I feel we need to find ways to attract residents to our community right now. To me the best way to do that is to show Dennis, Anne and Bill that Longboat is a friendly community with many community oriented activities that promote friendship and meeting new people. Dennis, Anne and Bill already think that Eldorado is to be found in the village at the north end of Longboat Key. We welcome them.

Wednesday, December 8, 2010

Clouds Over Longboat Beaches

Last Monday's commission meeting turned into a lengthy forum on the town manager's proposed $56 million beach project that has the town manager recommending that the scheduled beach renourishment be moved forward a full year. Once again I state that I object to the town using the face value of bonds as opposed to the figure that appears on our tax statements which is the bond value plus interest. The bond value is in the vicinity of $45 million.

I spoke to the commission and the gist of my statements appears below followed by the town manager's rebuttal of my claims. This column represents a new paradigm in our community government in that I can now respond to the town manager's enviable position of always getting the last word. So please read to the end, because I believe you will enjoy the new and I feel improved process of governance.

Here are my comments to the commission on Monday evening:


Initial Bond $45 million

Minus $7 million for a north end jetty.

$45 million bond minus $7 million for the jetty leaves $38 million as the projected cost for sand.

Interest on $38 million sand bond at 3% for 8 years = $9.12 million.

The true cost of the project is $38 million plus interest of $9 million = $47 million.

$47 million is what appears on our taxes.

The town manager has stated that 1.2 million yards of sand will be required.

$47 million divided by 1.2 million yards of sand equals $39 dollars a yard for sand.

At $39 per yard the most we could expect to be reimbursed from Port Dolphin would be 128 thousand yards of sand. That is 1/10th the amount being used for the proposed sand renourishment. If Port Dolphin pays us money, the cap is set at $5 million which is linked to our costs for removing the sand from the Port Dolphin right-of-way. There are absolutely no guarantees the town will get a nickel from Port Dolphin.

If the beach project is advanced a year the taxpayers will lose a full year of amortization on the previous beach bond which is approximately $660.000. In addition the taxpayers will have to start paying $1.3 million annually on a new beach bond a year early. I am not even including any discussion of possibly far less costly beach maintenance technologies that will not be examined if the beach project is advanced a year.

Is Port Dolphin worth advancing the project with all the extra costs involved?

The total cost for both the sand and the jetty is $45 mil + 3% interest for 8 years equals $10.8 mil, for a grand total of $55.8 million added to our resident’s taxes.

I include here a lower cost projection in an attempt to show that even at a lower coast project that the financials still do not make sense to me.

Low end sand only estimate: $32 mil for sand bond / $7.7 mil for interest / $40 mil total / 40 divided by 1.2 = $33 per yard / 151 thousand yards reimbursed from Port Dolphin – still not worth it.

If we are going to pay between $33 and $39 a yard for sand that will be half gone in two years, I believe we need to research alternatives first. $33 - 39 a yard is simply too much to do otherwise.

Below are my responses to the three statements made by the town manager to refute the above statements.


1) The town mnager stated that each year we lose 250,000 cubic yards of our beach sand. I am assuming that is what he is saying when he stated that there is yearly loss of $4 million worth of sand from an initial renourishment of 1.8 million yards. 1.8 divided by 8 = 225,000. From what I have read and what has been stated by CP&E, there is an initial accelerated equilibrating process that occurs in the first two to three years where approximately 50% of the dry beach profile is redistributed as the beach profile approaches equilibrium.

“The time scale for profile equilibration has been examined for several projects and it has been found that the project will stabilize to one-half the equilibrium adjustment in approximately 2 to 3 years.”…NOAA quote.

The rate of sand loss in a perfect system (no storms) then decreases logarithmically each year as the dry beach comes closer to equilibrium with the greater shore profile. This would indicate that sand loss in the final year would not be 1/8th of the whole, as the town manager stated, but much less. I disagree with the town manager's assertion that waiting a year would cost an additional $4 million dollars. I do not believe the taxpayers come out ahead by early termination of the current beach project.

Sand Loss Graph: (note logarithmic loss curve - less and less sand lost over time)
2) The proposed north end jetty: The town manager rebutted that not advancing the beach project would leave no sand in the north end system for the proposed jetty, and that a jetty needs sand in the system because jetties do not produce sand. I wish to say I do not agree with that statement. Jetties are expressly designed to keep sand out of a system, in this case out of Longboat Pass. I do not believe we need to worry about not enough sand reaching the jetty. Rather we need to hope that not too much sand escapes the jetty, and is lost into Longboat Pass, which is the whole rational for a jetty in the first place. Jetties are designed to retard the loss of shore sand into an inlet.

I believe the town manager has stated on several occasions that 50,000+ yards of sand are lost annually into Longboat Pass off just the most northern two thousand feet of Longboat. Without an accurate measurement of the sand crossing the inlet from Anna Maria onto Longboat, we have no way of predicting how much additional sand will pile up against the jetty. In short I cannot agree that waiting a year will in any way adversely affect the intended function of the proposed jetty.

3) The town manager's third assertion, that it will cost more for sand if we wait a year, is a more complex issue and one that has never been broached before. If one follows his reasoning we should terminate every beach project early to save money. I am reminded of Zeno’s Paradox of Achilles and the Tortoise. Accelerating a beach project also accelerates the need for the next beach project, and so-on. It is a zero-sum game. Since our sand costs have risen exponentially from project to project, I find it difficult to believe that any new sand will be less expensive than sand from a previous project.

I still maintain that there are adverse financial consequences for advancing the beach project and a total lack of any assured benefits.

Termination of the current beach project a year early adds $660,000 to the existing bond amortization schedule.

Sunday, December 5, 2010

To Advance or Not to Advance


One cost of advancing the Longboat Key beach project to 2011 from the scheduled year 2012, on a $45 million bond at 3%, is $1.3 million in yearly interest on the bond a year early.

So far the town manager’s sole reason for advancing the project is the Port Dolphin sand and the possible loss of up to $5 million in payments from the pipeline company, if Port Dolphin decides to construct the pipeline.

The following considerations should be part of the cost/benefit analysis of advancing the project one year.

1. The taxpayers will receive one less year of value for the current $26 million bond or $660,000.

2. The taxpayers will have one fewer years when they are not paying for a beach bond.

3. The taxpayers will pay $1.35 million dollars interest on the new bond one year early

4. Exactly how many cu/yds of sand from the Port Dolphin borrow-sites will be used on the proposed beach project? We should know this.

5. Is there a sand transportation differential between the sand coming from the north end of Anna Maria Island and the sand coming from the more distant Port Dolphin borrow-sites?

6. How is the town reimbursed by Port Dolphin, by the yard or as a lump sum? The town manager has stated that the town may receive up to $5 million so I expect there is some sort of yard/dollar formula.

7. The beach consultants say 2 of 5 sections of the beach on Longboat Key will receive the darker courser Port Dolphin sand. If the total project is 1.8 million yards of sand, then perhaps approximately 2/5ths of that amount will be taken from the Port Dolphin sites or 720,000 yards of sand.

8. By advancing the project by 1 year, to receive possible compensation form Port Dolphin, each yard of the 720,000 yards from Port Dolphin will have an added cost of $1.80 to cover the added early interest on the $45 million bond.

9. I estimate that the town has already spent over $500,000 fighting the Port Dolphin pipeline, so there is another $1.40 added on to the cost of each yard of sand coming from the Port Dolphin sites. These are only approximations and are not represented as actual amounts. However, we should know the actual figures before we move forward.

If the Port Dolphin sand does have hidden costs in the range of $3.20 per yard, is it worth advancing the beach project one year, even if we do recive some money from the pipeline company? Remember we will be getting one less year of life from the current beach bond which makes that taxpayer transaction 14% more costly, while at the same advancing payments on the next beach bond by one year.

The Longboat Pass inlet management study may produce findings that preclude needing as much sand as projected in the currently proposed beach project. Why encumber the residents with additional taxes that may not be required after the completion of the inlet study.

The interim sand placement at the north end alleviates the necessity to act this year as all the other beaches are performing on schedule for the original 2012 beach project.

If Port Dolphin is the sole reason being advanced as the driving factor in advancing the beach project by a year, I say we should know a lot more about what we will actually receive from Port Dolphin and then run a cost/benefit analysis. Uninformed decision-making usually has its problems.

The town and the taxpayers might save a lot of money if an alternative beach maintenance technology is evaluated and found to be effective in acquiring sand, at no cost through accretion, and then retaining the sand for extended periods of time.