Saturday, February 25, 2012

This Old House


Mayor Brown, and more importantly, Vice-Mayor Brenner, have recently voiced their opinions that properties on Longboat Key, that are over 25 years old have served their economic life, and need to be allowed to redevelop.

Commissioner Brenner's evaluation of the majority of older properties is important since he is up for re-election. His evaluation of older properties might clarify what has previously been a vague promise on his part about resurrecting the island's stature.

Mayor Brown's public statements may do more to dampen an already distressed real estate market than anything I have seem previously. To state at a workshop that Longboat Key is in danger of becoming Detroit on an island might dissuade even an ardent admirer of our bucolic ambiance. That both gentlemen have expressed their views that older properties on Longboat Key are, or soon will be, unsellable does little to promote real estate sales on our island. If I was a real estate salesperson I would be hopping mad at both of them.

Commissioner Brenner has added to the real estate misery index by recently stating that retail business does not work at Whitney Plaza. He made this statement without offering any alternatives. If I was trying to sell that shopping center, I too would be distraught over Commissioner Brenner's assessments.

What is wrong with older and smaller? Is it invariably the case that anything over 25 years old, or smaller than whatever it is that the mayor and vice-mayor have in mind, is unsellable and past its economic usefulness?

While Commissioner Brenner seems to be saying that newer and larger is better, though this is a guess since Commissioner Brenner has been vague in this area, the facts point in the other direction.


My daughter and family live in Mill Valley in Marin County, California. She, along with a wonderful husband and my three beautiful perfect grandchildren, lives in a small "Craftsman" home that was originally ordered out of a Sears catalog a century ago. It is small, it is old and it is very valuable because it is in a very desirable community.

I recently went back to the home I was bore in in Larchmont, NY. The house is small by some commissioner's standards. It is at least 100 years old and it also is valuable because it too is in a desirable community.

Neither one of these residences lies on a tropical island adjacent to the most desirable city in Florida. The 1200 sq/ft unit next to a unit I own at Longbeach Condominiums recently sold for 570 thousand dollars. The complex was built in the late 70's and the units originally sold for less than 60 thousand dollars.

There is almost nothing for sale in the village. Again the houses are old and small. The living experience is priceless. Rajewski is advocating recreating our community's energy and lifestyle instead of towers along our north end beaches. I believe we can remodel our homes and condominiums while retaining the quiet ambiance that brought most of us here in the first place. I feel there are still lots of discriminating home buyers out there who simply do not know we are here. We do not need to seek a greater mass appeal in order to retain our wonderful way of life on Longboat Key.

There is an election for commissioner in March. One commissioner candidate believes that many of the residences on Longboat Key, including the one I live in, have served their economic usefulness. The other candidate, Ray Rajewski, believes we need to revitalize the paradise we already have.

How does one redevelop what we already have? Under existing codes, condominium associations and home owners may voluntarily rebuild. However, building height, density and land coverage are major obstacles. For many condominiums where density is presently above current codes, fewer units could be built to replace current units, unless they duplicate what already exists. It the owners get by that hurtle, they may face land coverage challenges if they want to build larger units.


Who pays for the redevelopment? Who will buy a new, larger, much more expensive unit if the surrounding community remains unchanged? How many decades will it take to redevelop the north end of Longboat Key along with Country Club Shores? It took almost 50 years to get to where we are now.

It is my belief that Ray Rajewski offers the better vision for Longboat Key into the foreseeable future. I do not agree with Commissioner Brenner that older, smaller residences on Longboat Key have reached the end of their economic life.

If the commission approves sweeping code revisions that allow tall towers, who will be the ones building these new structures. How much will they offer you for your home or condominium?


How does one redevelop without going higher? And how much higher?

We need to ask each candidate to specifically define their vision for our future in realistic terms. Being vague can lead to misunderstanding.

I do not agree with Commissioners Brenner and Brown that Longboat is doomed unless they are allowed to redevelop the older properties. What exactly does redevelop mean?

I know of too many communities, less well situated than ours, that are vibrant and viable despite their age and the size of their homes.

There is a clear difference in the goals of the two candidates. One seeks redevelopment. Ray Rajewski seeks renewal. It is up to the voters to either have faith in what has been a very successful community model and in a resurgence in the American economy, or entrust their future to people who want bigger and newer where many of us presently live. Once we have started down the road of redevelopment, there is no turning back.

I wrote a pervious blog in 2010 about negative assessments of Longboat Key by Commissioner Brenner, among others, as being counter productive. Click on link: http://lbk-folk.blogspot.com/2010/10/be-booster-for-beautiful-longboat.html

It seems nothing has changed with Commissioner Brenner over the past two years, yet I see no positive results eminating from his positions on the viability of older homes. I personally resent having commissioners telling me they think my home is soon to be worthless.

Fear and Loathing on Longboat Key


What I am seeing on Longboat Key, during the current local election cycle, disturbs me more than anything else I have experienced in any of the several communities I have lived in.

There appears to be an underlying fear that openly opposing the present political authorities will be punished with social reprisals. More than a few residents have privately confided in me that they are unwilling to openly support Ray Rajewski, either with campaign contributions or campaign signs in their yards. They fear making enemies, and being ejected from various social groups.

A few good people have asked me to make contributions to candidate Rajewski using my name, and they would give me cash in return. These people call me "brave" for making a contribution to Ray's campaign. Is this healthy for our community I ask myself?

Why is there such socio-political fear and loathing in our community?

Why are so many residents afraid to express their beliefs and political choices, even to the point of being afraid to contribute to a political campaign?

I am not talking about only one or two families.

To me, any time people are fearful of joining the community dialog, we have cease to be a free people. This is scary to me. Yet, again and again people ask me to fight for a particular community issue, and openly express fears about being politically active themselves. "We don't want to make enemies" is a common thread in these conversations.

Certainly one could accuse these citizens of being "sheeple". But that would not completely explain why they are fearful in the first place. People have told me about perceived social ostracism and exclusion resulting from their actions. It is unfortunate citizens feel this way, since even the fear of punishment for one's beliefs undermines the foundation of our constitutional republic.

I am sorry that candidate Rajewski will not be receiving his full measure of campaign contributions. I am sorry that there will be people who are afraid to put a sign in their yard. I wonder if that would be the case for a national election.


It seems on Longboat Key we are still free to vote, but we are in jeopardy of losing freedom of political expression. What is almost entertainment on the national political stage is clearly taboo in our community.

When people lose their freedom of expression, for whatever reasons, our society is diminished somehow.

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

It Takes a Village

During the next few months, the north end, and especially the village, may see the town commission proposing revisions to the existing town comprehensive plan and building codes to allow a major tourism development on the commercial land located at GMD and Broadway at the north end of Longboat Key.

I hope the north end community will participate in large numbers in this process. If the residents participate, there is much more likelihood that the land at the entrance to the Village will be developed with an intent to maintain and protect the ambiance of the neighborhood.  If the north end community does not choose to be an active part of the development planning, then what happens at the north end may not be in the best interests of the major stakeholders in the area, namely the homeowners.

Let's look at the difference in composition between shopping centers that cater to residents in a community, compared to shopping centers that cater to tourists. Are the two appreciably different? Perhaps we can compare two such shopping experiences located adjacent to the north end. One is the Center Shops on Longboat Key and the other is Bradenton Beach. Both are thriving, yet each caters to a different clientele.

The types of businesses located at the Center Shops rely on local customers to survive. The businesses include the well attended Longboat Key Education Center, a bank, three locally supported restaurants, a frame shop, an exercise center, a UPS store, several offices, dry cleaner, kitchen shop, window treatment store, etc.


Bradenton Beach enjoys two seasons, drawing patrons in the winter from Anna Maria Island and during the summer from beach goers and day tourists. The types of businesses in Bradenton Beach are largely tourist oriented. I do not think anyone believes the few residents of Bradenton Beach are capable of supporting such a robust group of tourist oriented businesses. Ed Cliles' Beach House restaurant is a major draw for Bradenton Beach and appears to enjoy a year-round clientele.

The unique location of the north end commercial property, its relatively low cost, and its access to the north end beaches might attract a developer interested in creating a day tourist destination. Such a development could be a lot more fun than Coquina Beach on a year-round basis for tourists and Manatee County residents. However, I cannot see how local residents and day tourists share similarities in lifestyle. I am trying to imagine what types of businesses would attract beach going day tourists and young people to a commercial center on the north end of Longboat Key.

In recent studies it has been found, that when commercial tourism is introduced into a previously residential community, the local residents tend to lose territory, as they retreat from tourist activities.

The composition of the proposed commercial overlay district at the north end is a question of who's interests will be favored. If it is residential taxpayers, then there will be restrictions as to what sorts of businesses can be located within the overlay district. If it is simply finding a way of resuscitating a failed commercial center, then a more open approach will most likely be considered. Reference: ordinance 2012-06 Future Land Use Elements GOPS discusses north end overlay district.

Last evening, at the Observer/PIC debate, Commissioner Brenner stated that "retail does not work" at Whitney Plaza, and we've seen that that has been the case for years. If retail does not work, what does work, and do we want it? 

The residents of the Village need to be involved.


 

Thursday, February 9, 2012

The Last to Know

150 room hotel from Google search

Why were the residents of the village and the north end of Longboat Key the last to know about the "150-room boutique hotel" that Michael Drake revealed is being proposed at the north end of Longboat Key at last week's village association meeting?

Why is a south end resident, Randall Clair, who was voted out of office by the electorate, on Spoll's, commission mandated, Chamber of Commerce sponsored, stealth revitalization committee, telling north end residents what will be done with their property, when the long-standing  president of a north end condominium association was not invited to join the committee or the planning group at the art center last Saturday? For that matter, since I was elected by the people to replace Clair, why wasn't I asked to be on Spoll's secretive group, that meets on town property without advertising, virtually closed to the public, and attended by town staff at taxpayer expense?

What is being allowed to occur at town hall may be in violation of town government rules and may even be in violation of state law. We don't need a new community center if the commission is willing to allow private, business sponsored, groups to use town property and town resources, staff and utilities for private functions.

It is interesting to note that several members of Spoll's committee are, or have recently been, on the boards of PIC, the Garden Club and, of course, the Chamber of Commerce. Please note that the town staff has no official list of exactly who is on the committee, even though the committee meets on town property, and is allowed to schedule space as a private exofficio group that has access to town employees.  This group, which seems to want to have a lot of say, and arguably has some clout about development on the key, is not subject to the sunshine laws.

Back to the 150-room hotel proposal that no one at the north end knew was happening for the past 6 - 8 months. Why did the Planning and Zoning Board gratuitously offer to add an additional floor to any development at Whitney Plaza at one of their meetings some months ago, after a developer had already discussed a hotel project with the then town planning director? Did the town staff relay what should have been private information to members of the PZB? The timing and coincidence of the hotel proposal and the PZB discussion need to be explained satisfactorily to the residents. I believe the north end residents have a right to know what went on during this entire process spanning at least seven months.

Spoll's committee concocted an amateurish narrative north end development survey, which Michael Drake then asked a few of the residents to complete. Interestingly, Mr. Drake did not offer to inform those residents about the hotel project being put forward by some developers. Commission Brenner has been asked about development on the north end also.  He has twice assured constituents that nothing is happening.  It could be assumed Spoll's committee will find that his survey demonstrates that no one at the north end objects to a tall hotel at the north end. Of course, that is because no one knew about it. This entire process is ready-made for the lawyers. To save our community still more legal strife and probable stalled movement at the north end, as we have with the Key Club,  I am requesting the Spoll's phony survey be nullified and that a new survey be created by credible professionals, not undergraduates, after the community has been adequately informed about the possibility of a 150-room hotel on the property north of Whitney Plaza.

The village association has a history of political bias where Mr. Brenner has been repeatedly granted  opportunities to campaign, while political  opponents do not appear for some reason, no matter who is the opponent. Mr. Welly appeared before the village association for a lengthy presentation, and the village association held another discussion about the Key Club led by the then president. I am not aware that IPOC was ever invited by the association to make a presentation to the village residents. I am sad that the village association has such a recent unattractive political history. It was not that way a few years ago. Many villagers have quit the association in the past four years.


Who knew what when? Until this question has been fully vetted, there will probably be a lot of resistance from north end residents who will object to 18 year-old undergraduates telling 80 year-old PhD's, CEO's, etc. what they can and cannot do with their property.

The town, by allowing, and condoning, a private, commercially sponsored, group to repeatedly use town resources, meeting rooms and staff, may be placing the community in jeopardy. This group may have overstepped their mandated authority concerning what has happened at the north end. No resident deserves to be misled. The residents at the north end should have been informed about what people at town hall, and others associated with town government and exofficio committees, may have been aware of, before any survey was distributed. The entire survey process is unscientific and therefore invalid.

Spoll should be embarrassed. If I am not mistaken, Spoll was on the commission that denied Bob Dawson access to town hall to hold community meetings, saying it was against the town rules. Perhaps the commission needs to remove Spoll's ommittee from town hall. Perhaps they can find somewhere to meet like the rest of us. The village association has been reduced to meeting in peoples' garages since the art center was acquired by a private concern, introducing legitimate staff and insurance problems.

Look at previous article about an hotel at Whitney Plaza -

Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Brave New World




Today 1 in 5 American households is multi-generational. The only segment of the new house market that is growing is the "accordion" home designed to accommodate several generations of a family living together in one structure. Parents with children under 21 are not included when counting multi-generational households in America.

You and I were born into a unique period of world history where there was immense growth in the middle class, for a period of 60 years, based on the emergence of automated manufacturing and the revolution of "technology" When I was a young child, plastic did not exist as a manufactured material. We have lived through an amazing period in human existence. Democracy and capitalism spread over the entire globe. Agricultural and medical science saved humanity from famine and disease while improving the human condition. Amazing times.

We are seeing, in this interminable national election cycle, the beginnings of a necessary reality adjustment in our country. We are beginning to accept the fact that blue collar manufacturing jobs have been largely replaced by numerically controlled machines and robots. The factories that produce Apple products will install 1 million additional robots in the next 3 years. We are not the only society that is entering the new technology age.

The manufacturing jobs are gone and it wasn't the result of "outsourcing". The jobs were gone 40 years ago with the advent of the semiconductor and cheap computing. In the 70's I started a company that automated several labor intensive aspects of the gaming industry. My company would charge unconscionable prices for our ideas and products, only to see them pay for themselves in a few months of reduced labor costs. We, my company, were the suckers, not the casino managers, who were usually pretty sharp business people.


I think we are all beginning to recognize that an economic colossus, the size of the American industrial base, took decades to be seriously affected by the new technology age, that has replaced hands and sweat with robots and automated machines.

Plastic and engineered materials have largely replaced metal. The pencil has been replaced by the computer. Vastly improved modes of transportation have ushered in the age of distributed manufacturing and assembly. The internet will soon marginalize national borders.

The manufacturing sector is not coming back. The brief period in history where a single society, representing less than 8% of the global population, was able to afford to consume 25% of the earth's resources, both natural and produced, has ended. Humanity is moving on. We, as a society, will necessarily begin the painful process of downsizing. American consumption and consumerism will have to come into line with the other peoples on earth. Nationalism is perhaps the first thing that will have to disappear for all countries. Global economics are out in front in this area. When I was a child, Americans would chuckle at the "made in Japan" label on imported products. Now we cannot get foreign made IPhones fast enough.


I do not know what will become of the blue collar segment of our society. I do know there are millions of clever people looking for a way to get rich by inventing something or some computer program that reduces costs for someone. If I worked in a Chinese IPhone/IPad factory, I would be looking for something else to do real soon. There is a robot in his/her immediate future.


Japan entered the global manufacturing market in the late 50's. American manufacturers underestimated the viability of a highly educated and organized industrial base. America lost market share and jobs. It took fewer than 35 years for Japan to enter permanent economic decline, as other countries entered the global marketplace, made possible by improved transportation technology including the jet plane. Now no one would dream of manufacturing something in Japan. It's too expensive. There too the Japanese laborer has been replaced by the robotic assembly line. China may well pass through its period of manufacturing expansion in fewer than 2 decades. Already some US manufactures are returning jobs to America, but not necessarily north America. Mexico may soon become the new China.

1 in 5 US households are multi-generational. This translates to a diminution of the American standard of living. We can elect whomever we want, but times have changed. There is no way to regain our golden age of the middle class. At least not as blue collar workers.

We as a nation need to "get real". We are just another society caught up in a world of too much violence (the result of too many people having too little), too many human beings, too much pollution, too little available water to support the global agricultural expansion that will be required to feed everyone and too much stuff. We need to start smelling the flowers instead of buying another flowerpot on the internet.

How did the mantra of "cheap goods" ever become the sacrament of American society? Do we all need all the stuff we posses? Look up "hedonic assimilation" as it relates to happiness. Basically, we all quickly get use to our new stuff and need more and better stuff to get another consumption high. America, and much of the modern world, is on a never-ending consumer treadmill.


The working class will have to find something else to do, since there is no longer an expanding need for their services or efforts. How's your robot today? Capitalism is based on an expanding market. Recent studies show Japan's population decreasing 30% by 2050. As societies industrialize their birth rates decline. Without 1 million illegals entering the US each year, we also would have a declining population growth rate.

Right You Are, If You Think You Are


"Right you are if you think you are",  a play by the absurdest genre playwright Pirandello. I think Longboat Key politics have become a community theatre of the absurd.

Community center - the $10 million speculative adventure being proposed by Mayor Brown is encountering a fair amount of community opposition, despite claims by the mayor that "the community is behind" his project. Several taxpayers have pointed out that in these difficult economic times, the town needs to be fiscally responsible. The commission should propose a public fundraising option to build a communty center rather than proceed with using taxpayer funds. 


There is no defensible reason not to follow the successful private fundraising efforts used to create the Anna Maria Island community center and Christ Church here on Longboat Key. We are in more difficult economic times than we were when the proposal to build a community center was rejected by a referendum several years ago. The community may once again reject the efforts of our activist mayor and his efforts to spend much needed public funds on this multi-million dollar project.  We need to pay down debt, not create more public debt. I wonder what Mayor Brown thinks has changed?



Commercial real estate - the current activist commission is strongly advocating that the town radically change our building codes and Comprehensive Plan, to the extent that the commercially zoned land at the north and south ends of the island will become too juicy to be ignored by developers. We are making it easy for developers to build whatever they please, regardless of the ambience or desires of the resident taxpayers. The commission is planning to give developers public streets, too, as we did at the Conrad Beach development, a project that is still unfinished after more than a decade.

What is being ignored by the commission is all the taxpayers who live at the north and south ends. Does the commission actually believe that legislating a seven story condo-tel at Whitney Plaza will do anything but adversely affect the north end ambiance? Based on what empirical evidence? Have they asked the local residents what they want, instead of assuming what some developer would want? Hand picking a group of like-minded business people and residents to carry out some sort of phony study does not constitute anything but a violation of the public trust. The commission should be ashamed of itself.

It may be time to consider reigning in the practice of the commission of using appointed, unofficial, committees to formulate, and supposedly validate, radical departures form existing town policies. Essentially this is stealth government and should be unacceptable in any community.

Granted the residents of Longboat Key have exactly the government they were too uninvolved to elect. An appointed government has no incentive to be responsive to the people. In our particular case, Longboat voters and residents are so uninvolved in their own local destinies, that the current people in power are relatively sure that their regime will last for decades of appointment after appointment to the town commission and planning board. I believe that most residents have abandoned any interest in local politics. Perhaps what is happening is a natural process that occurs when the residents reach a certain age demographic and are only seasonal residents.

Increasingly, spending $18,000 on a local election, with the major newspaper, the real estate community, the Chamber of Commerce, PIC and the garden club behind the incumbent pro-business candidate, each for their own political ends, is a waste of taxpayer money. The development and business interests now own Longboat Key. The voters of the island appear not to care anymore and have abdicated their rightful role as an electorate. Instead, a few powerful special interest groups effectively control who gets to be on the commission and the planning and zoning board. They even decide who is today's town manager.

Most residents don't know what is really going on in town government. And many residents who vote get their information from a pro-business newspaper and PIC, a sham community organization. Uninterested ignorance prevails, while taxpayers passively accept a stalled real estate market, crippled by the uncertainty of the future of commercial tourism on the island. No one wants to invest in property that may be rendered worthless in a few years as a result of actions being undertaken by the current, predominantly appointed, activist town government.

I am sympathetic with the plight of our new town manager, who daily must live or die by a political sword in the hands of self-anointed, appointed, professed pro-development activists, who control both the town commission and the planning and zoning board. These appointees can have the town manager's head on any given day, as they have recently demonstrated, appointing 4 town managers in a month's time. A town manager can only be effective when allowed to function as a sort of technocrat. As far as I can see we no longer have a stable powerful town manager. That position has been superseded by a self-appointed, political, fairly radical clique within our community.


Ask yourself if your life and financial situation on Longboat Key is better or worse than when the current pro-business commission came into power 2 years ago.