The best laid plans of mice and men

Commissioner Duncan is now advocating a long-range 25-year plan for our community. I guess he is saying that we need to follow his plan if we ever want to see our community prosper again. Unfortunately, none of us will be around to see if he was right. As justification for his call for long-term planning, Commissioner Duncan states " the town has to look no further than the current state of the island’s deterioration, in the form of aging shopping centers and foreclosed homes."

I do not disagree with Commissioner Duncan that our residents and town government need to become more pro-active in maintaining all aspects of our community. We differ is tactics and strategies.

Commissioner Duncan uses the community center as a focal point in his discussion and appears to be advocating a community dialog, whereas Commissioner Brown appears to feel that he and his fellow commissioners are the only people who need to be involved in both the design and the method of financing a community center. I prefer Commissioner Duncan's more inclusive approach. Commissioner Duncan raises the question if we even need a community center. A few weeks ago I proposed re-purposing unoccupied commercial property as a community center, both to test the waters for a need for a center, without committing the community to yet more bonds, and alleviating the glut of empty commercial buildings on the island. We could also have a community center up and running before the coming season. I do not see any downside to this idea.

It has now been 18 months since the current commission assumed power and assured our community that they would solve all the problems left unresolved by their predecessors. I believe the phrase "fix town hall" was used at one point. I do not see that anything has transpired since then. Actually, it looks like we have actually slipped further behind. The Key Club expansion has experienced one setback after another during the 2.5 years since the KC hearings first began. I remember the town attorney saying that he and the town planning staff would resolve any lingering questions in a couple of weeks. That was long ago and the most recent missive from the town attorney, concerning referendums, portends of even longer delays. I have always advocated a responsible rejuvenation of the Key Club since it is is an attractive and classy part of our community. The KC helps us stand out as an affluent retirement community. Unfortunately, the Loeb group chose an uncompromising political solution that has become a statutory and legal quagmire, with no end in sight, inspite of the town attorney's repeated assurances that everything will be OK any day now. The commission should have prevailed upon Loeb to come up with a viable project. They did not and a majority of the commissioners still press forward with their grand design for us all without paying any attention to the economic and legal realities that surround them.

Some of the actions by our commissioners, including what I believe to be unfortunate exchanges between commission members and residents who are experts in the area of land use, seem to be leading our town towards becoming a poster child for a possible future Florida Harris Act ordeal.

Commissioner Duncan is quite correct in his assessment that commercial property is deteriorating on Longboat and that more and more homes are coming onto the market. It would be nice to counter his appraisal with some good news. However, the longer our country sinks into economic decline, the more people will hit the wall, and be forced to unload the economic burden of a second home that they only used a few months a year. This is an economic reality for a seasonal retirement community. No amount of long-range planning will alter the course of events. Commissioner Duncan decries employing tactics where he feels long-range strategies are needed. I disagree. When the house is on fire it is not the time to look into pension plan alternatives with the fire fighters union. We need to take more immediate measures to improve our community image and to attract the baby boomers to buy here instead of Anna Maria Island or The Villages in central Florida.

I have written several columns about what I believe we need to do to improve our market position and that does not include still more hand-picked committees of head-bobbers to rubber stamp the ideological beliefs of the current people in power. I wish the current people in power were more effective than they have been over the past 18 months. From failed referendum votes to a stalled Key Club project, to failing to look at the root cause of our failing commercial real estate, there's a lot of smoke and a lot of rhetoric and little else.

The realities of the national and global economics cannot be solved by strategies, no matter how well-meaning. No one knows what socio-economic conditions will prevail twenty years from now or even next year. We need to be nimble and seek solutions for tomorrow not after we are all dead and gone.

One place we need to start looking is in the area of retail real estate. Remember we have enough retail real estate to support a community of 75,000 people. We actually have fewer than 8,000 averaged over the year. If people want to have the commercial tail wag the dog, then we will need to tear down a lot of older two astory condominiums to make way for tall buildings that will house 75,000 people on a year-round basis. That most likely means tourists, since our current residents don't stick around after April. If we manage to get 75,000 people to stay on Longboat during the hot season, than we will have an economic base to support the present commercial real estate property, and I guarantee we will have terrific traffic jams every day. Of course, we will need new water, sewer and electric services along with a solution to the impediments of the Circle and Bradenton Beach. I already know people who prefer to live on Anna Maria rather than fight the traffic at the Cortez Road light in Bradenton Beach.

Short of accomplishing all the above, there is simply too much land on this island zoned commercial. If Publix does decide to fully develop their land at Avenue of the Flowers, that will draw customers away from the Center Shops and any future for the new mega Whitney Plaza. One can only divide a pie so many ways before everyone goes hungry.

We need good news now. We need a community center now, not years from now. A lot of delay and strife will occur if the commissioners attempt to force an unpopular tax burden on the voters, before we even know if the people will support a community center. Keep in mind that the proposed town budget shows a deep cut in funding for recreational activities. Let's use common sense not theoretical strategies and lets get moving and get something accomplished. There has been too much posturing and not enough actual improvements over the past 18 months.

See picture at: http://lbk-folk.blogspot.com/2011/06/best-laid-plans-of-mice-and-men.html

Frog in the Fryingpan

Put a frog in a fryingpan of hot water and it will immediately jump out. Put a frog in a pan of cool water and gradually heat the water, the frog will stay put until it is soup. We are I fear proverbial frogs in a fryingpan. Our community is more and more rapidly being commerciaslized, yet it appears we either do not notice, or we are so disconnected for this community that we simply do not care what happens, just as the frog does not notice the steadily warming water.

I wonder how many Island Side property owners would have bought into the Longboat ambiance and perceived investment security of this island if the Key Club, in its expanded form had been already in existence. Somehow I feel the people who live at Island Side might have looked elsewhere for a more spacious and relaxed environment. A place where their investment would be in more caring hands.

I have several friends in Bay Isles who are worried that the planning and zoning board, in concert with the commission, will legislate a massive expansion at Avenue of the Flowers Plaza that might, if we are lucky, include an assisted living facility. It is not clear what height and density increases are being contemplated by the planning and zoning board. Of course all this is being done without the participation of the owners of the properties in question. It might be a good idea to find out what they want. Has anyone found out why all the businesses at Avenu of the Flowers left?

Blackpoint Partners, who have some sort of connection with Loeb Partners, who are trying to increase the Key Club land value at Island Side, are still planning a 1600 unit condominium addition on the golf course at Bay Isles as Blackpoint Partners states is their intention on their web site:  Blackpoint states they will be able to expand their presence on Longboat by changing the development codes. It appears from the actions of our town government that Blackpoint knows what it is talking about.

I attended a party in the village this evening where people are in shock at the thought of a 7 story mixed-use structure that covers several properties in addition to Whitney Plaza at the entrance to one of the most charming enclave of old Florida homes on the west coast. Wouldn't it be appropriate to ask residents what they want instead of forcing commercial development on them? I have always believed that local government was supposed to be responsive to its constituents. Here the residents are not asked.

6 story mixed-use structure

What if the present town government gets its way and abandons a comprehensive plan that, up until 2008, has been responsible for making Longboat one of the premier residential retirement communities in America? 75% or more of our residents are retired so let's not quibble about being a retirement community. Do the people on the commission and the planning board believe that people will spend more time on the island if they greatly expand commercial development on the island? One need only look at the percent of part-time residents to see that that is unlikely. Who then will patronize all the new stores and hotels that are envisioned by the current government? If you lived in Sarasota or Bradenton would you fight the traffic over the bridges just to go to a small community with a few more stores and no beaches? If you were an investor would you build a six story strip-mall on the north end with its seasonal sparse population that did not ever support Whitney Plaza? A few people clambering for more development do not fill stores and shops.

Perhaps a decade from now, if ever, investors will take a gamble and build more commercial space on Longboat. Then retailers will have to be persuaded to open business where more than half the people leave for 8 months a year. Businesses on Longboat have not failed because of a lack of store space. They failed for lack of year-round business.

Meanwhile our local government has not introduced a single initiative to expand social amenities in our community to attract home buyers to a more inviting environment.

For an in-depth analysis of what is happening please goto:
 http://lbk-folk.blogspot.com/2011/03/modest-proposal.html

Foot Notes:

Blackpoint: http://www.blackpt.com/portfolio_LongboatKeyClub.html "refinanced property’s $45 million non-performing loan under a new lender, installed new management and developed master plan to add approximately 1,600 new units to density."

Whitney Plaza: "Consensus was reached by planning board members at their Tuesday, March 15 regular meeting in making plan changes that would allow Whitney Beach Plaza to rise from its current one-to-five stories with 65 feet of height in total. The board also agreed that a developer coming forward with a project should be allowed to include plans for a residential component, as long as it doesn’t exceed 20% of the total project." 

Bay Isles: "The board directed town special counsel attorney Nancy Stroud to come back with potential plan amendments that would allow for a residential aspect of a town-center overlay district, which would include Avenue of the Flowers and land east through parcels along Bay Isles Road, such as the Longboat Key Public Tennis Center and the religious institutions. Stroud suggested a policy that would allow the town to provide fiscal incentives for proper revitalization to both areas when funds are available. Although the planning board isn’t looking for a new residential component along Bay Isles Road, consensus was reached to see if developers might come back with a senior-living facilities component."