The Wizard of PIC

Everyone who has been on Longboat Key for any length of time knows about the Public Interest Committee of Longboat Key or PIC. I moved to this island in 1985, the first full year of PIC's existence. The late 80's were contentious times on Longboat and PIC became the voice of the island residents in the struggle between ARVIDA and everyone else. PIC quickly acquired quite a few members. Because of this public support, PIC was able to become a formidable force in island politics.

After the developer wars had ended and Longboat created its current Comprehensive Plan that reduced density on Longboat from the original 75 thousand to 25 thousand, PIC still was an active and strong voice in island government. PIC was created as a voice for the residents. If you were a real estate sales person you were ineligible for PIC membership.

The late 80's and 90's became the golden age on Longboat. Residential real estate values increased pleasingly. Longboat Key became one of "the" new places to have a second home or retirement home. Little by little PIC became less and less relevant. There was an almost perfect balance between tightly regulated development and residential paradise. The American economy was booming and new wealth fueled a booming real estate market on Longboat that continued unabated until the end of 2007, when the meanies on Wall Street ruined everything for everyone.

2008 saw the resurrection of PIC as a voice in Longboat politics. Prior to 2008, PIC's main function was to anoint a PIC member to fill any vacancies on the town commission. I recall they took a position on the wrong side of the ill-fated reclaimed water project. I believe PIC also took the wrong stance on the airport noise struggle.

Anyway, in the hard times that started in 2008, a few residents, along with the Chamber of Commerce and the Key Club were able to reconstitute PIC, not as a resident advocacy group, but rather as a pro- development organization.

At this time PIC has 116 members that include the manager of the Key Club, one of the attorneys for the Key Club, the Chamber of Commerce LLC, a member of the board of the Chamber, one active and one retired real estate sales agent, one commissioner and one member of the Planning and Zoning board. 13 PIC members list off-island addresses. Of the 14 members contributing more than the basic $40 membership amount are the Key Club, the Key Club lawyer and a board member of the Chamber of Commerce.

The PIC board has 10 members. Talking to a long time PIC member, the PIC board does not poll members about political positions supported by the PIC organization. It appears that PIC, as a political activist organization, is controlled by as few as 6 members. To me this is less than a representative body to be advertising itself as an independent group that "communicates an independent citizen-oriented point of view." As  far as I know PIC has never advocated community surveys including the one recommended by the original Vision Plan director. I do not believe that the 90 members of PIC, who are not part of the board, or who do not have special interests, have much input into what PIC supports.

PIC has traditionally backed certain candidates in town elections and has traditionally backed PIC members over non-members most, if not all, of the time. This past election was no different except that the Key Club expansion application was at that time before the commission. At least one candidate, who appeared before the PIC nominating committee, was surprised to find the Key Club manager and at least one commissioner part of the interviewing group. The candidate also met a Key Club attorney leaving the Longboat Chapel sanctuary as he was entering for his interview. I leave it up to your judgment to decide if PIC is really representative of the residential community as they profess. And if so why was the Key Club present during the candidate interview?

I recently became a condominium representative to the Longboat Condominium Federation which represents perhaps 50% of the taxpayers on this island. If there is a truly representative organization, the Condo Fed would be the winner hands down. Yet the Condo Fed is a-political and I do not believe takes positions on any civic or political issues. Yet we have an organization of fewer than 100 members, if we subtract those members with special interests such as the Key Club and the Chamber of Commerce, that asks for special recognition by the town and wraps itself in the mantle of a populist citizen's organization.

There are those who will say I have a less than positive assessment of PIC because they did not anoint me as their pick when I ran for commissioner against Bob Seikman. I would not have won against a strong incumbent commissioner even with PIC's endorsement. Likewise, I defeated PIC's incumbent candidate the following election by a strong margin. There may be residents who rely on PIC to tell them who to vote for, as there are some who ask for marked-up ballots in national elections. I feel that any citizen who votes from a place of ignorance is lazy and doing a disservice to the community they live in.

In and around 2002 there were no fewer than 5 PIC board members on the town Planning and Zoning board. As PIC board members, a majority vote on the Planning Board met privately on a regular basis. To me this is too close for comfort. I prefer to see an unentangled town government. Unfortunately PIC has had a close relationship with our commission and major boards for too long. Remember PIC has a small membership and an even smaller controlling board. If Longboat Key was booming like the Villages and other Florida communities with robust real estate markets, one might not pay too much attention to the presence PIC has in our own government.

I believe that PIC supports some really worthwhile causes. While on the commission, I strongly supported the efforts of Landau and Younger to fix the broken town budget process. Hopefully my efforts furthered those efforts. I also feel that at times PIC represents the interests of a few, and that  detracts from their stature in our community. I also believe that PIC can serve as a cover for a small clique of residents with their private agenda. Wouldn't it be better to see a truly representative organization such as the Condo Fed weigh-in on community issues, after polling their members and reaching a broad based consensus.

Finally a Cell Phone Solution for Longboat Key

Telecommunications infrastructure maker Alcatel-Lucent announced this week new technology that will help wireless carriers expand their networks to keep up with the explosive growth in mobile data. Alcatel-Lucent is the largest supplier of equipment to the cell phone industry.

The company announced this week a new compact cell phone antenna system called lightRadio, which incorporates radio technology and base station technology in a single box. The entire system, which can fit on a lamp post, is a fraction of the size of today's cellular equipment. Current cellular networks require massive and power-hungry cell phone towers that house the antennas with a separate base station at the bottom of those towers that control the antennas.

When carriers have needed to add capacity or improve coverage, they've had to deploy these massive cell site towers. Alcatel-Lucent's lightRadio system, which will be ready for carrier trials later this year, allows carriers to deploy new cell sites much faster and less expensively than they have been able to do in the past. It also means that carriers can reduce the electricity used to power the cell phone towers and base stations.

All in all, wireless operators can reduce the cost of deploying and maintaining a new cell site by almost half of what it is today.



That has huge implications for the wireless industry, which is struggling to keep up with demand for more data services from smartphones and tablet PCs. In fact wireless data traffic is expected to increase 26 times between 2010 and 2015 according to Cisco's latest Visual Networking Index Forecast. Cisco conducts the survey every year to track network growth.

"It's clear that the explosion in mobile data will continue," said Wim Sweldens, president of Alcatel-Lucent's wireless division. "The architecture that Alcatel-Lucent is proposing will help avert a potential wireless crisis. If carriers don't move in this architectural direction then the problems we are starting to see today will only get bigger. And growing the networks will not be economically viable."

Wireless carriers have been preparing for traffic increases by adding more capacity to their radio networks as well as their back-haul networks that carry the traffic from the radio towers to the Internet. The wireless industry has been pushing the Federal Communications Commission to make more wireless spectrum available so that they can increase capacity. But getting new spectrum into the market takes time.

One way to add more capacity to the available spectrum is to deploy more cell sites that are smaller in area. Splitting cell sites means that wireless operators can serve more customers or provide more bandwidth to individual customers in each cell site.

Carriers have already begun using a mix of a smaller and smaller cell sites in their networks. For example, femtocells provide personal cell sites that can be in a home or business. The smaller cell sites are connected to a home or office broadband connection to improve wireless indoor coverage.

But splitting cell sites on a macro level in a metropolitan area is a little trickier if the old cell tower and base station architecture is used. Getting new cell towers approved is time consuming. And putting up those towers is expensive. It's also expensive to run these towers, which means long-term this architecture isn't viable.

That's where Alcatel-Lucent says it's lightRadio technology comes in. It would allow wireless operators to deploy smaller cell sites much more quickly and at a much lower cost.

This is where Longboat needs to be headed. Finally the new technology has become available and our community needs to become pro-active in creating an island-wide cell phone solution that serves the entire island and not just a small area at the north end.

Link to more information: http://www.thomson-webcast.net/uk/dispatching/?event_id=8b6ec5993b492ac6c37d5045edf26554&portal_id=cd2e2cfc37c987fa20cd04f5cff6dea4&language=en



Skeptical Advice

This article is based in part on concepts expressed by Michael Shermer

I want to begin by thanking the entire commission for all their hard work and commitment to our community. Believe me when I say it is a difficult arduous task not without the slings and arrows of resident discontent and inescapable pluralism. I wish our community had many more dedicated, civic-minded residents willing to do the hard work that comes with being a town commissioner. I wish many more residents would become actively involved in the day-to-day politics of our community. At times, I feel like our island newspapers could carry a headline stating "the town commission has revolted and beheaded the town manager", and not a single resident would submit comments or a letter to the editor. Compared to other communities where I have lived, this community seems to be content, if that is the right word.


I want to talk about what is called "the argument from ignorance". This is most often manifested in thinking that says "it must be true because it has not been proven false". Or "because I cannot imagine a viable alternative, there cannot be one". I believe that our town government frequently finds itself making these sorts of assertions when they are confronted by large or complex issues, where the commission has to choose between several courses of action. Further, I believe that the argument from ignorance prevails through no fault of the commissioners, but rather because the commission lacks the necessary tools and adequate information to make truly informed decisions.


How do we avoid the argument from ignorance? I want to look at the current beach bond conundrum and look at some alternative scenarios that might have occurred, if more information and more input from professionals had been part of the process. Reading comments in the newspapers, and talking to residents, it is apparent that voters are unsure, confused and unclear as to the actual condition of the island's beaches, the future course of beach management and the financial implications of our current and future beach policies. At this point, I would refrain from forecasting the outcome of the beach bond initiative. Looking at the upcoming $16 million bond referendum, along with future beach management bond initiatives, I see confusion and a lack of understanding on the part of the electorate. Perhaps this is simply a reflection of the commissions actions over the past few months. I personally am unable to discern any clear direction going forward that offers any relief from escalating costs.

To anyone who has followed the tortuous course of actions that has led to the current bond referendum, one cannot help but see a conscious effort on the part of the town and the commission to limit discussion about our beach program. For instance, when the town manager held a special workshop on beach cost containment alternatives, no one advocating alternatives was invited to attend. Instead, the discussion was restricted to two "experts" who categorically stated that there are no alternatives to ever more expensive dredging. Since then a respected contractor has presented an example of an alternative to dredging that has been working well for many years. I do not believe many commissioners have understood the implications of a viable alternative, since the town manager blasted the working beach sand alternative for being site specific, and certainly not appropriate for Longboat. Personally, I worry about policies based in inference rather than experimentation and analysis.

If there are alternatives that contain costs, I fear our commissioners will never be open to examining them since the town manager will once again bring in his experts to convince the commissioners that the world really is flat. Not playing with a full deck of facts seldom leads to best conclusions.

As a commissioner, I tried to advance the need for special advisers to the commission. These experts would answer only to the commission and not be hired by or part of the town bureaucracy. I believe the commission makes decisions based on incomplete or politically colored information. These experts would be retained as needed and would advise the commission without being part of any other town business. Each adviser would be an expert in a particular area of interest to the commission. As the town is confronted by increasingly more complex issues we need to avoid "the argument form ignorance". 

The Mythos of the Vision Plan



Mythos - a pattern of beliefs expressing the characteristic or prevalent attitudes in a group.

I find it interesting that my reading of the now "adopted" vision plan differs so greatly from the interpretation of the vision plan being expressed by a couple of the town commissioners.

1. Background - the opening paragraph of the new vision plan states that the entire vision plan is crafted against the background of a momentary economic cycle. I feel that a vision plan should be rooted in prevailing community values and not on ephemeral economic conditions. Whereas the commissioners justified their actions based on business and money, those are hardly the values one looks for when looking for a new home or new schools or community social amenities. The entire vision plan is all about business and commercial profits. Only here and there is any mention made of residents or neighborhoods or town amenities.

2. Vision - the second paragraph also emphasizes commerce as stated "The core values are to create and reinforce a welcoming community and government atmosphere with a common sense approach to managing the mix of resident, visitor, and commercial uses of Longboat Key". Note that two of the three core values are tourism and business.

3. HOW WE GET THERE - in this section of the vision plan we again see an emphasis on restoring tourism and commerce, creatively reinvigorating underutilized commercial areas and supporting restaurants. In 1983 I participated in a sort of vision plan effort in Lake Tahoe. In Tahoe it was all about the people, schools and quality of life. I do not believe any mention was made about supporting eateries. Perhaps the greatest deterrent to families buying homes on Longboat is a lack of good schools. Perhaps we might do better as a community working at facilitating quality education in the two counties rather than what is on the menu.

4. CHALLENGES - here again 6 of the 8 paragraphs deal specifically with the deteriorated condition of businesses and tourist facilities on the island. As far as I can tell if a motel or shop looks dilapidated there is no one to blame other than the owner. Do the current commissioners really expect the taxpayers, most of whom cannot even vote, to devote town resources to prop-up failing businesses that are no longer in demand by island residents? I sincerely hope not.

5. "What is the potential future of Longboat Key if nothing is done? Longboat Key will be a much less enjoyable and convenient place to live, if all basic necessities, from gasoline to groceries to medical needs to entertainment, will only be found off the Island. Visitors will still be amazed at the beauty of the island, but may also come to the conclusion that there is absolutely nothing to do here beyond the beaches and possibly the resort. They will opt to purchase homes where they can have both - beauty and the conveniences that Longboat Key should offer."

I find this passage in the vision plan to completely miss the obvious - there really is nothing to do on this island. Except for a ridiculously high priced golf course and a really good community tennis center, what else is there to do for the greater part of the population? Surely the commissioners do not believe that going to an over-priced gas station constitutes something to do. As for aspiring to a robust medical system in our seasonal tiny community, I suggest the commissioners attempt to find an analogous community model somewhere else, before including it in a vision plan. We do need things to do and they are nowhere to be found in the vision plan. We need an adequate community center to the focal point of community activities that appeal to all our residents. We need social amenities and activities scattered throughout the community. We need places for residents and visitors to meet one another and provide entertaining healthy activities.

6. Points of Community Consensus - "The strength of a vision plan is directly proportional to the level of community consensus in support of it. The following points enjoyed a high level of consensus and were valued input in the writing of the plan:"

I do not know of any evidence that here is "a high level of consensus" concerning the vision plan. I was one of the 300 panelists on the original vision plan. My table of 8 was comprised of 100% business people and only two of us were residents. Observers of the process have confided in me that they believed the great majority of the panel members were business people. There is nothing wrong with the business community being the major component of the vision plan so long as that is make that clear. The town hired a $100,000.00 expert named Marlowe to manage the original vision plan effort. Mr. Marlowe advised the town that the then vision plan would not be legitimate without a comprehensive community survey to validate the vision plan. Instead of that we are now given a hand-picked committee and told that that constitutes the new consensus for the new vision plan. I don't believe the vision plan has been validated by the community so it remains illegitimate.

I suggest that the commissioners might better serve the community by finding a way to sell houses since that is our most pressing problem at the moment. What good is a vision plan, drafted by a hand-picked committee, aspiring to resurrect a business and tourist presence that may never have made economic sense, when all we see is For Sale signs everywhere. That, and not what some restaurant is serving for supper, is making the greatest impact on the vitality of Longboat Key.

My New Vision Plan

Last Monday night the town commission "adopted" a vision plan based on pre-2008 focus group data, that is no longer relevant in light of today's economic and demographic realities. The current commissioners tweaked the old information by adding a new emphasis on commercial development in a exclusive residential second-home community. Why?

So I am proposing a New Vision Plan based on current socio-economic realities, which do not include inappropriate commercial enterprises that detract from our community's residential composition.

Ask yourself if you would prefer a liquid real estate market where, if you wished, you could sell your home in less than a month at a good price, or hoards of tourists, traffic and condo-tels like Reddington Beach or many of the other commercialized Pinellas County beach communities? If you prefer the former, then you may like my New Vision Plan. This plan includes many incentives to attract new residents, not contained in the old Vision Plan "adopted" by our current commissioners.

This afternoon Elisabeth and I went to the Manatee Art Center to see the National Watercolor Exhibition. WOW! I highly recommend it to anyone who appreciates beautiful art. The art center was packed with people obviously enjoying the exhibition. Elisabeth struck up a conversation with one couple who informed us that the entire group was from The Villages and had arrived on two buses. We noticed that everyone was our age and obviously having a good time with one another.

As our discussion progressed we inquired about the housing market in The Villages. They said that currently over 250 new homes are sold each month at The Villages, and that figure did not include sales of existing homes. I have since confirmed the 250+ figure with the developers.

Then we discussed community activities at The Villages such as the outing to the National Watercolor Exhibition that we were all attending. The woman directed me to the Activities Web Site for The Villages. I have since looked at the website and I am astonished by the breadth and depth of activities available to the residents. Here is the link: http://www.thevillagesdailysun.com/app/files/recnews.pdf

So the cornerstone of my New Vision Plan is creating more activities to draw our community together rather than promoting more tourist businesses up and down GMD. My New Vision Plan has the town using its resources to promote community values, community activities, development of a community center and spearheading a concerted effort to promote our community as the place to own a home, a place to meet new friends and a place where residents are actively engaged in life.

My New Vision Plan envisions a re-build-out of our residential neighborhoods, fueled by a strong demand by perspective baby boomer home-buyers, who want to be part of an exclusive seaside community, at the forefront of defining the new American way of life. Tourism oriented strip malls and condo-tels may be fine for Reddington Beach, but they have no place on our island.

My New Vision Plan has no place for traffic grid-lock or beaches crowded with day visitors. The New Vision Plan promotes an active yet relaxed community. One need only look at other successful communities, Florida communities, where real estate is in high demand, to realize that tourism is by no means essential to a vibrant growing community.

My Vision Plan has our community redefining itself and becoming part of today's New America, where it seems people want to be more active and more social. We need to have our town government turn its efforts towards community development, not commercial development. We are an island community that has failed to stay abreast of current community trends and we need to change direction now.

The Villages is not located on a beautiful island in the Gulf of Mexico. Yet they are attracting 250+ new home-buyers a month while our community is attracting a dozen if we have a good month. I believe we as a community are not currently able to offer a lifestyle that attracts the new generation of home-buyers; and that we need to change as quickly as possible. We might want to look at why we would even want to devote resources to tourism that is probably a decade in the offing. Until we understand why people want to move to such places as The Villages and not here, we should not embrace the commission's vision plan that emphasizes tourism.

The ink is barely dry on our new vision plan, the one some of the commissioners defend as being community friendly and absolutely unbiased towards commercial development, and the commission already has the town spending taxpayer money on a lawyer to immediately change our trusted comp plan to do one thing - promote commercial expansion on Longboat Key. The commission's actions speak much louder than their rather hollow protestations, that their vision plan is little more than a manifesto for commercial development of our precious residential community. One would think that at this time, when so many Longboat taxpayers are financially stresses and unable to sell their homes, that the commission would not hurry so to help their business friends, while doing nothing to assist their fellow residents.

Pension Plan Procrastination

The commission has been kicking the pension plan problem down the road for a couple of years. While I was on the commission we had meeting after meeting about the pension plan. We heard from and listened to many pundits and experts. And we did nothing about the pension plan predicament.

From that time to now, while the commissioners have been continuing to take no action, 17 new hires have been added to the pension plan, and to the already considerable financial obligations of the taxpayers. The commission seems to be suffering from pension plan paralysis.

The pension plan issue boils down to two choices. The first involves joining the Florida Retirement System (FRS), which would require fully funding our current pension plan financial obligations as a condition of admittance.

The second option is to put all new hires in a "defined contribution" or 401K retirement plan, while maintaining all current employees on their "defined benefits" pension plan. The town could offer to buy the employees out of the current pension plan but that would require as much money as buying into the FRS. It seems that the Florida Retirement System is the best choice.

If the stock market was currently at say 18,000 we would not be having a pension plan discussion, because our plans would be fully funded. The upside of "defined benefits" pension plans is possible gains on investments that offset pension obligations. However, the vicissitudes of the market have not been kind to our three volunteer investment committees, and our town finds itself in the unenviable situation of being in the bottom 10% of funded municipal systems.

Defined contribution pension plans require a fixed rate contribution into employee 401K plans. Most of the town's management are on 401K plans. I suspect there may be a few of these employees who wish they had stayed with the defined benefits system instead of being underfunded for their retirement due to market losses. The town manager receives a 28% of annual salary contribution into his 401K. It should be noted that the amount of money required for yearly defined contributions plans is usually greater than payments into a defined benefits plan.

Our present, locally funded retirement plan does not allow employees to transfer benefits if they move to another location. The FRS does have transportability within the state. Even though the FRS suffered recent losses in their investments, the FRS is still ranked highly in state retirement funds.

I can see no future in continuing with our current volunteer pension fund committees with their duplication of fees to advisor's, lawyers and brokers. The FRS can afford to hire the best fund managers. We cannot, and that is reflected in our underfunded pension plans. We are in the bottom 10%.

While the commission mulls over its alternatives, the town continues to add to the obligations of its pension plans. Joining the Florida Retirement System is the most prudent choice. Moving to a defined contributions plan will not lessen our current debt. Nor will it attract the best workers as long as there are other communities that offer a more secure career track either by being part of the FRS or by offering their own guaranteed retirement plans.

Being part of a huge state pension system would stabilize our pension plan issues, add portability as an incentive to attract new workers and most importantly assure our employees a secure retirement. A 401K plan does none of these.